Are Your Parents Likely to Move In? If So, How Should You Prepare?


Don’t look now, but if your parents are in their late fifties or sixties, chances are pretty good that they’ll be moving back home – to your home – in ten to fifteen years.  They’ll still be healthy.  The issue will be that they’ll be out of money since many people in their late fifties and even early sixties have just a fraction of the amount of money needed to make it through a 20-30 year retirement.  Many just have enough to make it five years or less.

There are a couple of things you could do.  You could just ignore the issue and believe it won’t happen.  You could move away and leave no forwarding address, hoping to hide somewhere.  Or you could take on the issue head-on, figuring out if you are likely to need to take your parents in, perhaps help them take steps to delay the inevitable, and make choices now to be ready when the day arrives.  Here are some steps to take:

Have the talk

People say that the two conversations parents and children find most difficult are those about sex and money.  But if your parents are heading into retirement in the next ten or twenty years, now is the time to get a gage on how they are doing.  You may not be able to get them to talk about specific numbers, but maybe you can find out things like 1)Do they have a pension plan at work or a 401k?   2) If they have a 401k, have they been putting away 10% or more right along (if not, suggest they start putting away 15% now) 3)If they have they have a 401k, have they let it build up their whole career or have they pulled money out?  4)Are they planning to stay in their home in retirement or downsize and use the savings for living expenses?  5)Have they talked to a financial planner about their readiness for retirement?

Hopefully, they have a pension plan or they have been regularly contributing to their 401k with no withdrawals.  If they are planning to sell their home and downsize, they may be able to stretch their retirement savings a bit.  If they have gone to a financial planner, hopefully he/she has started to help them realize whether or not they have saved enough.  If from the answers to these questions it does not look like they have done much planning, brace yourself for the worst.  At the very least, see if you can set up a meeting with a financial planner to discuss their status and look at options.

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If you do get specific numbers, you can calculate the amount they have total in retirement accounts and other savings/investments (their net worth) to determine how much money they have available to generate income for retirement.  (Do not count their home value in the total unless they plan to sell.)  Once you have their net worth, subtract $400,000 for a couple or $250,000 for a single from the total to account for medical expenses in retirement, then divide by 25.  That is the yearly amount they’ll have available to withdraw each year to fund their retirement and probably make it through without running out-of-money.

For example, if they have $500,000 saved:

Yearly Amount = ($500,000 – $400,000)/25 = $4000/year

In the case above, they would be able to generate about $4,000 per year before starting to deplete their savings.  Add that to maybe $12,000 from Social Security, and they would have about $16,000 per year to spend.  That would not be a good lifestyle for most people and they would need help with bills and expenses.

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Set a Target

If you figure out that they need to be saving more, figure out how much they will need to pay for yearly expenses, and then figure out how much they need to save up to reach that target.  Assuming they’ll receive $12,000 per year from Social Security, here’s how much they would need to save up to generate different yearly income levels:

Monthly Income Yearly Income Single Account Value Couple Account Value
$2,500.00 $30,000 $700,000.00 $850,000.00
$3,333.33 $40,000 $950,000.00 $1,100,000.00
$4,166.67 $50,000 $1,200,000.00 $1,350,000.00
$5,000.00 $60,000 $1,450,000.00 $1,600,000.00
$5,833.33 $70,000 $1,700,000.00 $1,850,000.00
$6,666.67 $80,000 $1,950,000.00 $2,100,000.00
$7,500.00 $90,000 $2,200,000.00 $2,350,000.00
$8,333.33 $100,000 $2,450,000.00 $2,600,000.00

Realize that without the expenses of work clothes, maintaining a car for work, and things like professional dues and meals out, the amount needed in retirement will be less than their income while they are working.  If they pay off their home and cars, this will lower the amount needed even more.  They might therefore be able to set their retirement income target at 70% of their current take-home pay or so.  Of course, setting the target high reduces their risk in retirement.

Encourage them to save/invest if needed

If it looks like your parents aren’t ready, you’ll need to help them get into the best position they can.  Have them pull together a budget using the income you expect them to have in retirement if things don’t change.  Perhaps seeing what their life will be like if they head into retirement with $50,000 will cause them to decide to get passionate about saving.

You can then help them develop a savings plan to reach their goal.  If they are five years or less away from retirement, just subtract the amount they have from what they need, then divide by the number of years they have left until retirement to determine how much they need to put away per year.  Divide that number by 12 to determine how much they need to put away each month.

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 If they have more than five years until retirement, Multiply their monthly savings rate by the factor from the table below to estimate how much they’ll need to save each month since they’ll be able to invest to enhance their savings.

Years to Retirement Multiply Monthly Amount by
5 0.9
10 0.81
15 0.4
20 0.27

So, for example, if you calculate that they’ll need to raise about $2,000 per month to reach their goal and they have ten years until they will retire, they will actually only need to put away $2,000 x 0.81 = $1620 per month.  This assumes that they invest the money in a diversified set of stock and bond mutual funds or a target date fund appropriate for their retirement date.

Note that they will only need to save 27% as much if they start 20 years early – their investments will make up the rest.  If they are only five years away, they’ll need to raise about 90% of the difference through hard work and saving.  There is good reason to start saving early.  It may be too late for your parents, but you still have a chance.

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Encourage them to work longer

If they don’t have enough saved up and it is clear that they will not be able to do so before their expected retirement date, encourage them to think about working longer.  Not only will this allow them to pile up more money, but it will also reduce the number of years they’ll be drawing an income from their savings, reducing the amount they will need to have.  As long as they are healthy and don’t have enough saved up to live comfortably, they should continue to work, even if it is only part-time near the end.

New to investing? Want to learn how to use investing to supercharge your road to financial freedom?  Get the book: SmallIvy Book of Investing: Book1: Investing to Grow Wealthy

Have a question?  Please leave it in a comment.  Follow me on Twitter to get news about new articles and find out what I’m investing in. @SmallIvy_SI

Disclaimer: This blog is not meant to give financial planning or tax advice.  It gives general information on investment strategy, picking stocks, and generally managing money to build wealth. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks or any security. Financial planning advice should be sought from a certified financial planner, which the author is not. Tax advice should be sought from a CPA.  All investments involve risk and the reader as urged to consider risks carefully and seek the advice of experts if needed before investing.

Would you Rather Have a Million Dollars, or a New Car Every Three Years?


Would you drive a used car until you were 55 if someone would pay you a million dollars to do so?  Understand this doesn’t mean driving a junker – just driving a four-year-old car until it was eight years old and then trading for another four-year-old car.  If you would take this deal – and I think that most people would – why would you go on buying new cars anyway?

The fact is, if you can save up and buy used cars for cash every four years, rather than taking on a new payment schedule and dropping deeper underwater with each new car loan, you can invest the savings and have over $1 million by the time you are 55 just from the savings on the car loans.  Even more insane, that $1 million will turn into $2 million by the time you are 62, $4 million by the time you are 69, and a cool $8 million by the time you are 76 (which will probably be the new retirement age, given current life expectancies).

How could this be so?  Two reasons: depreciation and interest.

Basically, any car will drop in value by 50% in four years.  This means that a new car which cost $30,000 will be worth about $15,000 in four years.  This means that the car will lose an average of $3750 per year during each of the first four years.  This, by the way, is if you sell it to another individual.  If you trade it in, you’ll be lucky if the dealer will give you $10,000 (because he wants to make a profit from the sale of your used car to someone else).

 

              

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The same depreciation rate is true when you buy a used car – it will still lose about 50% of its value over four years –  but because the price of the car is less, the depreciation loss per year will be less.  Let’s say you pick up that car someone else bought new for $30,000 after four years when it was worth $15,000.  Even if it drops in value to $7500 over the next four years, you’ll still only be losing $1,875 per year.  This means that you will save $1,875 per year, which you can invest.

The second reason that what seems like a small amount of savings can turn into a large amount of money in 35 years is compound interest.  Specifically, while you are paying interest when buying a car on payments, you are being paid interest when you are able to save money that would have been going to a car payment and invest.  If you were going to be paying 8% interest on a car loan, but instead pay cash for the car and invest the rest, you will be getting an effective interest rate of 20% on your money, assuming a 12% return on stocks.  This means that instead of working extra hours to pay the interest on your car loan, you will be making money for simply letting others use your money to build their businesses.

So before you fall into the trap of endless car payments, think about what that car payment is really costing you – millions of dollars over your lifetime.  Is that new car smell and 32,000-mile warranty really worth that?

Your investing questions are wanted.  Please send to vtsioriginal@yahoo.com or leave in a comment.

Follow me on Twitter to get news about new articles and find out what I’m investing in. @SmallIvy_SI

Disclaimer: This blog is not meant to give financial planning or tax advice.  It gives general information on investment strategy, picking stocks, and generally managing money to build wealth. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks or any security. Financial planning advice should be sought from a certified financial planner, which the author is not. Tax advice should be sought from a CPA.  All investments involve risk and the reader as urged to consider risks carefully and seek the advice of experts if needed before investing.

Is It Possible to Save for College?


About 16 years ago I sat down and predicted the growth of my son’s college savings account.  I was planning to put away $2,000 each year into an Educational Savings Account (ESA).  Using an investment calculator, and using an estimate of a 12% return (about the average return for the stock markets), I predicted I’d have about $140,000 by the time my son was ready to go to college.  With in-state tuition at about $12,000 per year, plus money for food and housing, I was figuring a cost of about $30,000 per year, so the ESA would at least get him through undergraduate school.  He could then do research/teaching/etc. to help fund grad school if he went, and hopefully get out debt-free or fairly close.  That was the plan.

              

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Unfortunately, then came the 2001-2003 stock market, where returns were low or negative.  Things finally picked up after the 2003 tax cuts (yes, tax cuts do spur the economy, despite what some Liberal pundits will tell you), but then stocks fell during the 2008 housing market crash.  Since that point things grew at a modest pace, until Trump was elected, from which point on things have been on fire.  Despite the fairly good markets from 2009 – 2016, and the great market over the last 10 months, my annualized rate-of-return has been around 3.5% instead of 12%.

So, sitting here with about two years until the first tuition bills come in, my son’s account has a little over $52,000 in it today, instead of the $108,000 I predicted.  This is enough to pay for about two years’-worth of college expenses, but not four.  Alternatively, it is enough to pay for tuition, but not for room-and-board.  This has left me with a big dilemma:

How should I invest for the next couple of years, if at all?

With less than two years remaining, if I really need the money in two years, I should really put it all into bank CDs.  I cannot predict what the markets will do over such a short period of time, and they have about a 1/3 chance of being lower in two years than they are today,  There is a small chance, maybe one in ten, that they will be 25% lower or more, meaning I may only have around $39,000.  Then again, if we do see some great returns over the next couple of years, for example if Trump is able to pass big tax cuts and spur the economy, I could get 20% returns and have almost $75,000 when the first tuition bill arrives.  Note that my original predictions assumed I stayed fully invested in stocks the whole time, which was probably a bad assumption due to the risk of doing so during the last couple of years.

Another question this raises, however, is

Is it possible for a middle-class family to really save up and pay for college?

Granted, perhaps we should have been putting $4,000 or $5,000 away each year, with $2,000 in an ESA and then the rest in taxable accounts or a 529 plan after we maxed out the ESA.   But I don’t see how most families who don’t make $150,000 per year could afford that.  I mean, we have been very disciplined compared to many people our age.  Despite having an income far less than $150,000 per year, we paid off our home about six or seven years ago, leaving a lot of free cash flow available that many families who keep a constant mortgage don’t have.  Frankly, I don’t know how families who keep a mortgage are able to pay for the things they buy.  (Maybe they don’t, since the median amount of debt families who have a credit card balance is $17,000, according to Nerdwallet.)  Paying for everything and not using credit, including the things that come up like medical bills and auto repairs, I’m really glad we don’t have that $1,000 or $1500 mortgage payment each month.

I do think that many families should be able to get their children through college debt-free or close to it, but saving up everything ahead of time may not be possible.  Once our son gets into college, we could direct some of our regular income towards his room-and-board.  He is also likely to get scholarships that will cover most or all of his tuition.  If he also gets a part-time job and makes $500 per month, that would cover about half of his room and board.  Still, it does make you wonder why college prices are so high that many people need to get loans to get through.

Luckily in our case (and good planning and hard work create luck), we have some resources beyond the ESA to help pay for college.  Because of this, I will probably keep the ESA fully invested in stocks, hoping that we’ll see a couple of good years to boost the account balance.  If we see a drop in the next couple of years, we can cover costs with other funds for the first year or two while we wait for the ESA to recover a bit.  Really we don’t need to assume we’ll need to tap the account right away.

So what do you think?  Is it possible for families making $80,000 per year to save up for college?  Are tuition costs worth the value of the product they provide?  Is it worth it to run up loans to pay for college?

Follow me on Twitter to get news about new articles and find out what I’m investing in. @SmallIvy_SI

Disclaimer: This blog is not meant to give financial planning or tax advice.  It gives general information on investment strategy, picking stocks, and generally managing money to build wealth. It is not a solicitation to buy or sell stocks or any security. Financial planning advice should be sought from a certified financial planner, which the author is not. Tax advice should be sought from a CPA.  All investments involve risk and the reader as urged to consider risks carefully and seek the advice of experts if needed before investing.